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wie breit müsste die Biokraftstoff-Plantage sein? |
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Climate science |
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Sea level 100m lower than today |
Jos Hagelaars / realclimate.org |
Why climate change action is difficult1. Emission rate must drop to zero2. The '2°C'* budget is roughly half gone* NB, climate sensitivity is still uncertain |
Energy arithmetic |
A rough guide to sustainable energyNo millions, billions, or trillionsMake quantities comprehensible and comparableDo calculations per person, to one significant figureEnergy unit: kWhPower: 1 kWh per day ≈ 40 W |
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Fly London to Los Angeles and back, once per year...26 kWh per day |
June 2007 | ||
'If every London household unplugged their mobile phone chargers when not in use, we could save 31,000 tonnes of CO2 and 7.75m per year.' |
Energy saved by switching off for one day |
= |
Energy used by driving an average car for one second |
0.5 W × 86,400 s | = | 40,000 W × 1 s |
Energy saved by switching off for one day |
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Energy used by driving an average car for one second |
0.5 W × 86,400 s | = | 40,000 W × 1 s |
0.01 kWh |
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UK energy consumption: 125 kWh per day per person and more, if we take into account imports 90% fossil fuels |
A rough guide to sustainable energyNo millions, billions, or trillionsMake quantities comprehensible and comparableDo calculations per person, to one significant figureEnergy unit: kWhPower: 1 kWh per day ≈ 40 W |
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3.8 W/m2 Photo by Robert Hargraves Data from www.allearthrenewables.com |
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5 W/m2 | ||
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Wind | 2.5 W/m2 |
Plants | 0.5 W/m2 |
Solar PV panels | 5–20 W/m2 |
Tidal pools | 3 W/m2 |
Tidal stream | 8 W/m2 |
Rain-water (highlands) | 0.24 W/m2 |
Concentrating solar power (desert) | 15–20 W/m2 |
Fission: 1000 W/m2 |
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Electricity, gas, and transport demand; and fictional wind (assuming 33 GW of capacity), all on the same vertical scale. |
Why climate change action is difficult3. People are unaware of the scale of action required to decarbonize the energy system | |
4. and they've been misled by myths |
Why climate change action is difficult5. Most low-carbon technologies are either expensive, today | ||
6. ... or they have front-loaded costs |
Part 3Innovation support |
What we need for most 2050 pathways | |||
Amazing insulationThermablok and cheap building-retrofit |
Smart meters and smart controls that induce behaviour change |
What we need for most 2050 pathwaysCheaper wind, especially offshore | 2benergy.com | ||
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Makani Power |
What we need for most 2050 pathwaysProliferation-resistant, safe, low-waste nuclear power | |||
Jules Horowitz materials test reactor | |||
What we need for most 2050 pathways | ||||
Carbon capture and storage at scale | ||||
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What we need for most 2050 pathways | |||||||
Smart grids, DSRInterconnectorsEnergy storage |
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What we need for most 2050 pathways, in the long term | |
Carbon dioxide removal technologies | |
What we need for most 2050 pathwaysBackup plans
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What the world needs for 2050 |
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Solar power | ||||
Deep geothermal |
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'Okay - it's agreed; we announce - "to do
nothing is not an option!" then we wait
and see how things pan out...'
Lowe, Private Eye |
Why climate change action is difficult7. Making good energy policies is difficult |
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Why DECC's work is difficultMultiple misaligned objectivesWishful thinkingLack of evidence |
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Policies
Vancouver to Immingham: 8888 nautical miles |
(skip to pv example)
Electricity price in pounds per MWh
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(skip to ivc example)
www.energy-charts.de
(skip to ivc example)
(skip to ivc example)
(skip to ivc example)
(skip to ivc example)
Impington Village College |
Why climate change action is difficult(at least, while low-carbon technologies are more expensive than fossil fuels)8. The atmosphere is a commons9. Solutions must be fair |
Negotiate a carbon priceor a carbon price mechanismgiving a predictable priceand with compensation for poorer peopleNOT caps. NOT cap and trade. |
azuri-technologies.com |
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Asse126,000 drums [Spiegel] Joachim Breckow, professor for medical physics and radiation protection, and president of the German-Swiss Radiation Protection Association (FS):.Even in the case of "an uncontrollable influx of solvents" -- in other words, if Asse became completely flooded -- many decades in the future, the population would be subject to a maximum radiation exposure of 0.1 millisievert, which corresponds to 3 percent of the annual exposure from naturally occurring radiation. The local population would, at most, have to avoid drinking water from the area. Anyone who is given a standard X-ray is exposed to roughly 0.5 millisievert - or five times the annual "Asse dosage." |
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Keeping energy demand and supply in balance |
Electricity, gas, and transport demand; and fictional wind (assuming 33 GW of capacity), all on the same vertical scale. |
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Britain | ||
http://www.maps-of-britain.co.uk/ |
Reforestation: | 3400 m2 per person | |
would deliver –2 t CO2/y per person | ||
Fly (bioenergy): | 8300 m2 per person | |
enables one London-LA return per year per person [oilseed rape, today's aviation technology] | ||
Drive (bioenergy): | 5100 m2 per person | |
enables 17 km per day in a 30 mpg car [oilseed rape, today's technology] | ||
Biomass-CCS: | 4000 m2 per person | |
enables 16 kWh/d/p of carbon-negative electricity, (–7 t CO2/y/p) assuming sustainable biomass | ||
Food: | 180 m2 per person | 1300 kcal/d of veg |
116 m2 per person | 2 eggs per day | |
150-1400 m2 per person | 1 pint milk, 50 g cheese per day | |
450-3500 m2 per person | 0.5 lb meat/d (chicken, pork, beef) | |
Not forgetting: | nature; recreation; environmental services; buildings; roads |
All energy? Or just today's electricity? | |
Maintaining secure supply every day and night, or just an average day? | |
Generating how close to the population? | |
Panel area or land area? |
Land area required | Cost of storage |
Land area required | Cost of storage |
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Storage costs - assume $125 per kWh [optimistic?] | ||
installed June 2011 — cost $12M ($28 per average watt) |
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Solar system cost: $28k per average kW; (to compete, aiming perhaps for $10k per average kW?) To keep 1 kW going for 12 hours of darkness, need 12 kWh of storage, which costs an extra $1.5k To keep 1 kW going for 5 dull days, need 120 kWh of storage, which costs an extra $15k So, for PV to deliver cost-competitive reliable electricity in a sometimes-cloudy location, we need two cost breakthroughs! |
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Storage costs - assume $125 per kWh [optimistic?] | ||
installed June 2011 — cost $12M ($28 per average watt) |
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Solar system cost: $28k per average kW; (to compete, aiming perhaps for $10k per average kW?) To keep 1 kW going for 12 hours of darkness, need 12 kWh of storage, which costs an extra $1.5k To keep 1 kW going for 5 dull days, need 120 kWh of storage, which costs an extra $15k So, for PV to deliver cost-competitive reliable electricity in a sometimes-cloudy location, we need two cost breakthroughs! |
skepticalscience.com |
Temperature data, corrected for the ENSO effects Source: Real Climate |