Monday 19th October 2015 – University of Cambridge Primary School

Eddington Avenue and Huntingdon Road

– Parents' Proposal


Dr Nicola Pearson, Prof David J C MacKay, Dr Axel Zeitler



tinyurl.com/EddingtonSafety


www.ipetitions.com/petition/EddingtonSafety
tinyurl.com/EddingtonSafety

What's here

The following 50 slides were presented at a meeting with members of the North West Cambridge team, with County Council staff, with a County Councillor and District Councillor, and with the Headmaster and Bursar of the University of Cambridge Primary School.

What's new


What's coming

  • An update to these slides - imminent;
  • A written document summarising our concerns and our proposals;
  • A youtube video explaining our proposals.

This webpage is maintained by Prof David MacKay.
The closest neighbouring community to the North West Cambridge development is the village of Girton.

Thornton Road, Thornton Close, Thornton Way, Thornton Court, St Margaret's Road, The Brambles, and Bandon Road are all within 15 minutes' walk and 5-10 minutes' cycle.

tinyurl.com/EddingtonSafety

The Current Situation

The Current Situation

overview from north

Excellent improvements to temporary crossing: white lines, taller lights.

Nevertheless vehicles still abuse the crossing

The Current Situation remains unsafe, but good efforts have been made to reduce the risks

The "November 2015" Plan

Our Main Points

1. The "demand" assumptions underlying the "November 2015" design are now known to be wrong.


2. This design does not make satisfactory provision for pedestrians and cyclists coming from and going to the north.


3. The design is inconsistent with commitments made in the 2011 NWC Transport Strategy.


4. An integrated toucan crossing, recommended by the Safety Audit, was cut out using an argument about "capacity" that is probably spurious.






We would like to propose modifications to the design

1: The design was based on incorrect assumptions

  • Principal demand for school was assumed to be internal to the NW Cambridge site
  • Crossing demand to the North was not anticipated to be significant
  • But University decided to open school early

→ Girton pupils

  • Of all 111 pupils, 40 live in Girton.
  • Anticipate that in the next two years, number from Girton will rise to about 105. [because expect another (2 years) x (90 pupils per year) x (40/111) = 65 from Girton]
    [1st wave of on-site accommodation only planned Jan 2017]


  • New nursery will attract toddlers from Girton
  • New Eddington retail / leisure / recreation facilities will be attractive to Girton

2. This design does not make satisfactory provision for pedestrians and cyclists coming from and going to the north.

What do we mean by satisfactory?

  • Safe for all users (bearing in mind 4-year-olds, pushchairs...)
  • Not requiring cyclists to dismount and push their cycles
  • Not requiring cyclists to break the highway code
  • "High quality" / "attractive, direct, and safe"
  • in both inbound and outbound directions

The "November 2015" Plan (with distances)

What is wrong with the "November 2015" Plan [desire lines shown in magenta]

What does the "November 2015" Plan expect these people to do?

Huntingdon Road on-road cycle-lane pinch points

Car driver's desire line


This pinch-point issue was flagged to the Lead Officer for the North West Cambridge Development at the City Council on 13/12/2011 by the Walking and Cycling Officer of Cambridge City Council.

Car driver's desire line


This pinch-point issue was flagged to the Lead Officer for the North West Cambridge Development at the City Council on 13/12/2011 by the Walking and Cycling Officer of Cambridge City Council.

5-fold foreshortened view from southeast

5-fold foreshortened view from southeast

Similar encroachment by cars already happens at Whitehouse Lane

Similar encroachment by cars already happens at Whitehouse Lane

What does the "November 2015" Plan expect these people to do?

Note when 4-year-old friends see each other across a road, many have no innate road sense and just cross the road. (We have recorded incidents children run across roads without parental permission twice in 5 weeks.)

Southwest pavement is narrow

Wheelie bins are placed on the footpath once per week, further narrowing the narrow pavement

3. The Current Plan is inconsistent with the Transport Strategy for the North West Cambridge Development,

which says there will be
... new cycling and pedestrian crossings at all entrances into the development along Huntingdon and Madingley Roads as well as an additional cycle crossing linking to Whitehouse Lane.
[page 7, Non-Technical Summary of the Transport Assessment September 2011
http://www.nwcambridge.co.uk/files/o1_8_3_non-technical_summary.pdf]
and:
From North West Cambridge there will be two new road junction accesses onto Huntingdon Road - the Huntingdon Road West and East junctions - and another new road junction onto Madingley Road. [...] These three junctions will be traffic signal controlled, and will include pedestrian and cyclist controlled crossings to aid their movement.
[page 8, Non-Technical Summary of the Transport Assessment September 2011
http://www.nwcambridge.co.uk/files/o1_8_3_non-technical_summary.pdf]

The commitment to integrated crossings is repeated in the Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary



Improvements directed at improved connectivity and safety for pedestrians and cyclists

• new cycling and pedestrian crossings at all entrances into the development along Huntingdon and Madingley Roads as well as an additional cycle crossing linking to Whitehouse Lane.
[page 38, Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary – March 2012
http://www.nwcambridge.co.uk/files/o2_7_7_environmental_statement_tech_summary.pdf]


What does "new cycling and pedestrian crossings mean"?

The new Madingley Road / High Cross junction has a toucan crossing.
The future "Huntingdon Road West Junction" has a toucan crossing.

What does "new cycling and pedestrian crossings mean"?

See marks "C" and "D" on the map – expecting crossings here?
The new Madingley Road / High Cross junction has a toucan crossing.
The future "Huntingdon Road West Junction" has a toucan crossing.
Policy NW14: Madingley Road to Huntingdon Road Link
A new route will be developed linking Madingley Road and Huntingdon Road. This road will be designed as part of the development and its design will be based on low vehicle speeds. It will give priority to provision for walking, cycling and public transport, including safe and convenient crossings for pedestrians and cyclists, in order to encourage travel by more sustainable modes.

Transport Assessment Appendices – September 2011
http://www.nwcambridge.co.uk/files/o1_8_2_appendices.pdf

The current design is also inconsistent with the
North West Cambridge Community Strategy – Feb 2013

North West Cambridge Community Strategy – Feb 2013



vision: "high quality of life"




goal of linking to neighbouring communities is mentioned repeatedly



The current design is also inconsistent with Policies in the North West Cambridge Area Action Plan – October 2009

Policy NW17: Cycling Provision

New and improved cycle links will be provided as part of the development, including:
...
c) Linking the development with the surrounding walking and cycling network and orbital routes including links to nearby villages and open countryside.

Policy NW18: Walking Provision

Development will be required to provide attractive, direct and safe walking routes as part of the development, including:
...
c) Linking the development with the surrounding walking network, including links to an improved rights of way network and to nearby villages and open countryside.
[https://www.cambridge.gov.uk/sites/default/files/docs/North%20West%20Cambridge%20Area%20Action%20Plan.pdf]

4. The Safety audit [conducted for the Planning Authority] recommended integrating the Whitehouse Lane toucan crossing into the Eddington Avenue junction

"However, as detailed in the committee report for the application the junction will be operating at, or near capacity, when the development is completed, and therefore incorporating the pedestrian phases into the crossing would take this junction beyond capacity."

Katie.Parry@scambs.gov.uk
Date: 15 October 2015 16:58:00 BST

"The Junction is near its capacity"?

This contradicts the modelling work reported in the 2011 Transport Strategy document.

Assessment of trips from the Development

Assessment Results

In assessing the level of trips generated by North West Cambridge, the Transport Assessment has adopted very conservative assumptions to avoid any possibility of underestimating the effects of the Development.
....

Junction capacity

  • assessment of the capacity of the junctions surrounding the Development (as well as those serving it) ... confirmed that they would operate within capacity.
[page 9, Non-Technical Summary of the Transport Assessment September 2011
http://www.nwcambridge.co.uk/files/o1_8_3_non-technical_summary.pdf]

"The Junction is near its capacity"?

Professor Frank Kelly CBE
Professor of the Mathematics of Systems in the University of Cambridge,
and Former Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Department for Transport

  • "Important to understand where the main bottleneck is likely to be on the whole of Huntingdon Road."
  • "If cause of peak-time congestion lies closer to town, choices between Eddington Avenue options will make negligible difference to congestion."
  • Prof Kelly is willing to assist a review of the transport modelling.

But anyway, surely the commitment in the Transport Strategy must be upheld?

... new cycling and pedestrian crossings at all entrances into the development along Huntingdon and Madingley Roads as well as an additional cycle crossing linking to Whitehouse Lane.
[page 7, Non-Technical Summary of the Transport Assessment September 2011
http://www.nwcambridge.co.uk/files/o1_8_3_non-technical_summary.pdf]

Our proposal

What is wrong with the "November 2015" Plan [desire lines shown in magenta]

The "November 2015" Plan

Our Proposal

& if possible, mothball or delay the crossing at Whitehouse Lane

Our Proposal [BLE-N]

We propose that the toucan crossing at Thorton Road be positioned very close to Thornton Road


– like Trumpington Road / Newton Road (St. Faith's School)

Summary

1: Add a toucan crossing at Eddington Avenue
    Add a toucan crossing very close to Thornton Road.

2: Widen the southwest footpath

3: Add warning lights that flash at school-travel time

4. Mothball or delay the Whitehouse Lane crossing until its connections are in place.

Our Proposal

If there really is a capacity issue with our proposal, it could perhaps be solved:

Or, if both integrated crossing options are ruled out, the same functions as an integrated crossing could be provided thus:

But this is our Preferred Proposal

Disatisfactory alternatives that might be suggested

Girton Road inbound


Let's play "spot the safe and convenient crossings for pedestrians and cyclists" at Bunker's Hill!

Disatisfactory alternatives that might be suggested

The Thornton Rat-run problem

Aggressive drivers
Queue of 20 cars waiting to turn left in the morning peak
Parked cars on the other side of the road

Speed limits, Home Zone, Signs


Constriction

15 mph and 20 mph zones elsewhere around Cambridge

Our Main Points

1. The "demand" assumptions underlying the "November 2015" design are now known to be wrong.


2. This design does not make satisfactory provision for pedestrians and cyclists coming from and going to the north.


3. The design is inconsistent with commitments made in the 2011 NWC Transport Strategy; also with the Community Strategy, and with the Councils' Northwest Cambridge policies.


4. An integrated toucan crossing, recommended by the Safety Audit, was cut out using an argument about "capacity" that is probably spurious.


Our proposal

Our Proposal

Comparisons with similar roads in Cambridge




Histon Road


Trumpington High Street


Hills Road

Distances between crossings on other roads around Cambridge

[cf 160m to proposed Thornton Rd crossing]




Histon Road


Note that the Warwick Road / Gilbert Road junction, which is near Mayfield Primary School, has four direct pedestrian crossings, and a pedestrians-only phase.
Trumpington High Street – Note the direct pedestrian crossing at the road leading to Fawcett Primary School.
Hills Road – pedestrian crossings at every school and college.
Huntingdon Road Huntingdon Road with predicted blackspots.

105 Girton pupils x 2 crossings per day x 195 days per year x 7 years = 286,650 crossings

Northwest Cambridge Personal Injury Collision Plot – 30/6/2011


END of presentation

Supplementary slides and photographs follow.

Reported road casualties by age and road user type

In 2012, 5,979 pedestrians were killed or seriously injured. Of particular concern was the number of young pedestrians killed or seriously injured: 26% were aged under 16; 8% were aged up to 7; and, 18% were aged between 8 and 15.
The number of pedal cyclists killed or seriously injured has increased in every year since 2004. In 2012, 3,340 pedal cyclists were killed or seriously injured in 2011 of whom 10% were aged under 16. Among the 516 moped riders (motor cycle riders 50cc and under) killed or seriously injured in 2012, 45% were aged 17 or under.

Source: Reported Road Accident Statistics
Standard Note: SN/SG/2198
24 October 2013
House of Commons Library
www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/sn02198.pdf


AA Motoring Trust
www.theaa.com/public_affairs/reports/facts_about_road_accidents_and_children.pdf

The "November 2015" Plan (with distances)

MARKINGS, KERBS

MARKINGS, KERBS - detail

MARKINGS, KERBS - detail, showing car driver's natural desire line

MARKINGS, KERBS - detail, with line showing kerb should be convex to West of blue point

Whitehouse Lane / Lawrence Weaver analogy

Spare slides

The "Junction is near its capacity" argument - Prof Kelly's full statement

I asked Professor Frank Kelly CBE, Professor of the Mathematics of Systems in the University of Cambridge, and Former Chief Scientific Adviser to the United Kingdom's Department for Transport, if he agreed with me that the capacity argument is spurious, because moving the pedestrian crossing to an extra set of lights just 110 metres away won't eliminate any capacity problem, and indeed it might make any capacity problem worse.

Prof Kelly said that while it is conceivable that moving the crossing to the site near Whitehouse Lane might improve traffic flow compared to the integrated-crossing design, it was also conceivable that it might make it worse; a detailed review would be required (and he was willing to assist such a review).
Prof Kelly also pointed out that, at present, the cause of peak-time congestion on Huntingdon Road may lie elsewhere, closer to town; in such circumstances, the choice between these two options will make negligible difference to congestion. Prof Kelly also noted that the three-lane width of Huntingdon Road at the Eddington Avenue junction is substantial, compared to the two lanes that exist from Lawrence Weaver Road onwards. So he thought it was important to understand from the data where the main bottleneck was likely to be on Huntingdon Road.

Mismatch between plans and what is being built?

11_1114_OUT-HUNTINGDON_ROAD__CONDITION_46_-_ROAD_MARKINGS__SIGNAL_HEADS_AND_KERBS-1435293.pdf

University Development docs

To do: find out more about Proposed cycleway along south side of Huntingdon Road between Bunker’s Hill and the proposed [WEST] junction.
https://www.admin.cam.ac.uk/reporter/2009-10/weekly/6194/section1.shtml#heading4-16 West and North West Cambridge Project Board The Council at its meeting on 7 December 2009 approved interim governance arrangements proposed by the Finance Committee. The initial membership of the Project Board is as follows: Mr Alexander Johnston (chairman) Professor Duncan Maskell (Head of the Department of Veterinary Medicine) Sir David Wallace (Master, Churchill College) Professor Jeremy Sanders (Head of the School of the Physical Sciences) Professor Ian White (Pro-Vice-Chancellor) Dr Keith Carne (First Bursar, King’s College) Mr Jeremy Newsum (Executive Trustee, the Grosvenor Estate) Dame Mavis McDonald (external member of the Council) Dr David Jarvis (Senior Tutor, Murray Edwards College) Director of Finance One vacancy The Project Board started meeting in January 2010
North West Cambridge Area Action Plan Local Development Framework Development Plan Document Adopted October 2009 A joint Area Action Plan prepared by and adopted by Cambridge City Council and South Cambridgeshire District Council https://www.cambridge.gov.uk/sites/default/files/docs/North%20West%20Cambridge%20Area%20Action%20Plan.pdf Policy NW17: Cycling Provision New and improved cycle links will be provided as part of the development, including: a) Giving priority to cycling links between Huntingdon Road and Madingley Road and to the City Centre; ADOPTED OCTOBER 2009 NORTH WEST CAMBRIDGE AREA ACTION PLAN 27 b) Giving priority to cycling within the development, including connections to key destinations, including the local centre, bus stops, the primary schools, employment, and adjacent development; and c) Linking the development with the surrounding walking and cycling network and orbital routes including links to nearby villages and open countryside. Policy NW18: Walking Provision Development will be required to provide attractive, direct and safe walking routes as part of the development, including: a) Giving priority to walking links between Huntingdon Road and Madingley Road, to adjacent development and to the City Centre; b) Giving priority to walking routes within the development connecting to key destinations, including the local centre, bus stops, the primary schools and employment; and c) Linking the development with the surrounding walking network, including links to an improved rights of way network and to nearby villages and open countryside.
http://www.nwcambridge.co.uk/files/o2_7_7_environmental_statement_tech_summary.pdf page 38: Improvements directed at improved connectiv- ity and safety for pedestrians and cyclists The Application includes, as part of the Proposed Development (in addition to pedestrian and cycle provision within Zone B of the Application Site): • extensions to the existing footpaths and cycleways along Huntingdon Road and Madingley Road to link to the accesses to the Development • improved cycle road signs and markings along the existing footpaths and cycleways along Huntingdon Road into the City • better pedestrian crossing and cycle facilities through the Huntingdon Road / Victoria Road / Castle Street junction • new cycling and pedestrian crossings at all entrances into the development along Huntingdon and Madingley Roads as well as an additional cycle crossing linking to Whitehouse Lane.
http://www.nwcambridge.co.uk/files/o1_8_3_non-technical_summary.pdf Non-Technical Summary of the Transport Assessment September 2011 The local planning authorities - Cambridge City and South Cambridgeshire District Councils - approved in October 2009 their “North West Cambridge Area Action Plan”, which provides the planning policy context for the Development. This includes the stated objective to “achieve a modal split of no more than 40% of trips to work by car (excluding car passengers) and to increase walking, cycling and public transport use”. In the case of the Development, this objective would be met by: ...

Transport Strategy for the North West Cambridge Development

Both national and local planning policy emphasises the importance of limiting the need to travel by planning developments that contain a mix of land uses - including local facilities, ensuring that they are well served by public transport, and providing cycleways, footpaths and crossing points to encourage both walking and cycling. ... THIS BIT IS IMPORTANT. Complementing this, enhancements will be made by the University to footpaths and cycleways along Madingley and Huntingdon Road leading into Cambridge City which will benefit all users. These measures include: The Current Plan is inconsistent with the published Transport Strategy for the North West Cambridge Development, which says new cycling and pedestrian crossings at all entrances into the development along Huntingdon and Madingley Roads as well as an additional cycle crossing linking to Whitehouse Lane. ... Vehicle Access and Internal Roads From North West Cambridge there will be two new road junction accesses onto Huntingdon Road - the Huntingdon Road West and East junctions - and another new road junction onto Madingley Road at the forthcoming West Cambridge junction - the High Cross junction. These three junctions will be traffic signal controlled, and will include pedestrian and cyclist controlled crossings to aid their movement. In addition, a fourth access from Madingley Rise will serve a cluster of academic research buildings - the internal road layout off this junction will not allow vehicle access to the remainder of North West Cambridge, although this will form part of the enhanced pedestrian and cyclist links towards West Cambridge. A toucan crossing will be installed adjacent to the Madingley Rise junction, to improve connectivity to JJ Thomson Avenue and the West Cambridge Development. These junctions and the road network through the North West Cambridge Site will be designed using the Department for Transport’s up-to-date suite of Manual for Streets guidance, to make these routes unattractive for car drivers wanting to ”rat-run” through the development between Huntingdon and Madingley Roads – restrictions to the flows, circuitous routes and a maximum speed limit of 20mph will all be introduced, in accordance with the North West Cambridge Area Action Plan. Whilst the design will control vehicles, it will ensure bus, walking and cycling movements are made as easy as possible.

Lawrence Weaver crossing is a two-stage toucan crossing

Assessment of trips from the Development

Assessment Results

In assessing the level of trips generated by North West Cambridge, the Transport Assessment has adopted very conservative assumptions to avoid any possibility of underestimating the effects of the Development.
The Person Trip Assessment concluded that, across the day, the number of people from the Development using their cars to travel would be 33.4% for the Research areas - less than the maximum 40% journey to work target set out in the North West Cambridge Area Action Plan. The original traffic modelling undertaken by the County Council for the Area Action Plan Inquiry indicated that the Development would increase the number of trips on the road network, as a whole, by around 2% - the new modelling work supports this. In numbers terms, the modelling predicted that on the wider road network there would be over 100,000 trips in both peaks without the Development. After taking account the effects of the Development, there would be around 700 additional car trips across the wider road network between 8 and 9 o’clock and around 900 car trips between 5 and 6 o’clock in the afternoon peak.
Looking at this further, the key findings from this modelling work are:

Junction capacity

  • assessment of the capacity of the junctions surrounding the Development (as well as those serving it), using the turning movements from the CSRM Do Something (With Development) scenario confirmed that they would operate within capacity.
[page 9, Non-Technical Summary of the Transport Assessment September 2011
http://www.nwcambridge.co.uk/files/o1_8_3_non-technical_summary.pdf]

Description of the South footpath in Environmental Report Volume 1 Main report 2 April 2012 is inaccurate

12.5.64

Extra slides, more detailed statements

4: Widen the East footpath if possible

Key point: The design was based on incorrect assumptions

The primary school has been opened early on the site ahead of any occupations on the development itself. This is a decision the University took that could have not been foreseen. In looking at the pedestrian desire lines mentioned in the safety audit, officers made the logical assumption that the principal demand school children for this school would have been internal to the site (which makes up the catchment area for the school) and did not feel that demand to cross at this junction from the northern side of Huntingdon Road would be so significant, and that the adjacent toucan (120m to the east), combined with the crossing at Girton Corner would be sufficient.

Katie.Parry@scambs.gov.uk
Date: 15 October 2015 16:58:00 BST

The Safety audit recommended integrating the Whitehouse Lane toucan crossing into the Eddington Avenue junction

The junctions have to go through a process called Safety Audit and whilst this is not necessarily undertaken by Cambridgeshire County Council, they are responsible for advising the Local Planning Authority (both South Cambs and Cambridge City Council in this case) as to whether the junction is safe and subsequently approved or not. For Huntingdon Road East Junction a safety audit was conducted and can be obtained by request from Sue Parsons at the County Council (sue.parsons@cambridgeshire.gov.uk).
The safety audit does suggest that the toucan crossing situated to the east of the junction (close to Whitehouse Lane) should if possible, be incorporated into the main junction upon a ‘review of pedestrian desire lines’.

Katie.Parry@scambs.gov.uk
Date: 15 October 2015 16:58:00 BST
However, as detailed in the committee report for the application the junction will be operating at, or near capacity, when the development is completed, and therefore incorporating the pedestrian phases into the crossing that would take this junction beyond capacity. The toucan crossing close to Whitehouse Lane is situated strategically to join the two cycle routes from the Darwin Green and NWC Developments on a desire line anticipated to carry significantly higher cycle and pedestrian flows.

Alternatives that might be suggested

Slides showing where the distance scale comes from

Scale




Whitehouse Lane is at 90m.
New crossing at 110m. / (+20)
Midline of Eddington Ave at 220m. / (+110)

The "November 2015" Plan (with distances)

More precise location of Whitehouse Lane crossing





More precise location of Whitehouse Lane crossing





More precise measurements of Planned Kerb to West

Photos and documents

4036 - Girton Road inbound - not nice

4037 - G Corner - no in-bound route across

38 - G Corner - no in-bound route across

47 - narrow footpath

48 - narrow footpath

60 - the pinch point from south

82 - one of the narrower points on the pavement, from south

86 - another narrow point

94 - car and bike running red light

96 - car and bike running red light (best single shot)

98 - car and bike running red light

4100 - car and bike running red light

1217 - good empty view of junction from north

Old version of presentation of our proposal

1: Add traffic-light-protected pedestrian crossings at Eddington Avenue and Thornton Road. Remove the Whitehouse Lane crossing.

2: Widen the West footpath if possible

3: Add warning lights at school-travel time

[Or 3b: Alternative Toucan crossing at Eddington Avenue]

Our proposal does not increase the number of traffic-lights on Huntingdon Road.

The "November 2015" Plan

Our Proposal [BLE-N]

Is the Plan being built? – Measurements of Planned Kerb to West

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David J C MacKay FRS,
Department of Engineering
University of Cambridge



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